Agriculture Assistant Secretary Edilberto de Luna, the National Rice and Corn Program coordinator, said that palay output for the whole year is forecast at 18.30 million metric tons (MMT), or 3.54 percent below the 2014 output of 18.97 MMT.
Meanwhile, expected corn production for the year is at 7.55 MMT, which is lower by 2.8 percent than the 2014 level of 7.77 MMT.
“The downtrend was largely attributed to the substantial losses incurred during typhoons "Egay" and "Ineng" on the July-September 2015 crop and typhoon "Lando" during the last quarter harvest,” he said.
“The adverse effects of El Niño, which started to manifest as early as the second quarter of the year also resulted to huge foregone damages incurred due to unrealized planting of crops because of severe water shortage,” De Luna said.
Meanwhile, authorities have also anticipated a decrease in production areas due to the aforementioned factors.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), palay harvest areas may have contracted by as much as 1.58 percent -- from 4.74 million hectares last year to 4.66 million hectares this year -- mainly due to the El Niño phenomenon.
All regions except for Bicol Region reported reductions in production and harvest area.
These were attributed to unrealized plantings as a result of delayed release and inadequate irrigation water, late occurrence of rains, and some areas left in-fallow.
Typhoons Egay, Ineng, Kabayan and Lando caused damages in the production areas in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Western Visayas.
There were also reports of damages to palay farms due to pest infestation in the province of North Cotabato.
On the other hand, the Bicol Region saw increased production due to the recovery of damaged areas caused by typhoon Glenda last year.
For corn, the PSA said harvest may have shrunken to 2.57 million hectares, 1.73 percent lower than last year’s 2.61 million hectares.
Decrease in production in Cagayan Valley is seen due to unrealized planting intentions in Isabela and Nueva Vizcaya caused by the dry spell; damaged areas due to typhoons “Ineng” and “Lando” in key production areas of the region; and shifting from corn to cassava and mongo.
On the brighter side, De Luna said that palay and corn jarvests are expected to rebound in the first quarter of 2016.
He said that based on farmers’ planting intentions, the January-March 2016 palay and corn harvests may exceed their respective records in 2015 by 0.31 percent and 0.48 percent, respectively.
The January-March 2016 forecasts for palay indicate an increase in production from 4.37 MMT in 2015 to 4.38 MMT in 2016.
For corn, the January-March 2016 is forecast to increase from 2.37 MMT in 2015 to 2.38 MMT in 2016.
The PSA noted that almost all regions expect increases in corn production with probable higher outputs seen in SOCCSKSARGEN, Ilocos Region, Davao Region and Northern Mindanao.
The agriculture official said that the early 2016 rebound could be attributed to the immediate actions of the DA. (PNA)